The Florida Republican Party (and some Democrats like Debbie Wasserman Schultz) are kept afloat by the corrupt south-Florida Cuban-American mafia. Now, their three south-Florida reps are facing the challenges of their lives, and at least two are already in serious trouble.

Bendixen & Associates. 6/6-22. MoE 5% in each district. (No trend lines)

Joe Garcia, up against Mario Diaz-Balart, is an Orange to Blue candidate. Martinez is going up against Lincoln Diaz-Balart. These numbers are nothing short of stunning. I've thought these races were quite competitive for some time, but I wouldn't have expected the Diaz-Balart brothers to be in this much trouble. And given that both Garcia and Martinez are raising great money, we have the makings of a series of dramatic upsets in South Florida this year.  

Annette Taddeo in FL-18 still lags, both in money and in this poll, but if she can keep it close, hers is one of those districts (like NH-01 and Carol Shea-Porter in 2006) that can get swept in by the force of larger trends (in this case, a strong Latino turnout for Obama and the entry of a large percentage of new voters, along with the collapse of the GOP brand). But she's got a ways to go before we can say she's "keeping it close".

But that is a lone bright spot for Florida Republicans (and their hard-right Cuban exile allies), who should otherwise be on "panic" mode given the Martinez and Garcia numbers.

On the web:
Orange to Blue ActBlue page
Raul Martinez for Congress
Joe Garcia for Congress
Annette Taddeo for Congress

Race tracker wiki: FL-21 FL-18 FL-25

Markos, you addressed this district last year, it deserves some more attention.  There is a new challenger in the race for Florida's 10th district, Mayor Bob Hackworth.  A staunch opponent of telecom immunity and already established as a successful politician in the district, Hackworth is the only one of the three democratic challengers who has actually held public office, twice elected to the City Commission and elected as Mayor of Dunedin, Fl. He also helped make Dunedin only the 3rd Florida city to be considered "green". This is a seat that democrats CAN win in November.  With groundbreaking officially beginning on the new Walter Reed, now is a perfect time to hit Republican incumbent C.W. Young hard on his failure to alert congress to what he knew to be poor conditions at the old medical center.  

By Candace Talmadge/North Star Writers Group

It is difficult to feel good this 4th of July given the mess the Bush/McCain Republicans have led this nation into. This year alone 438,000 people who lost their jobs. We are well into the Bush's SECOND recession (first president ever to preside over two recessions) with almost no recovery between them. We are officially in a bear market. Food prices are rising worldwide. Oil is at record highs suggesting Americans will have a very, very tough winter. The deficit is WAY above where it has ever been before and no end in sight. And I am not even going into the inept, idiotic and completely useless Bush/McCain Iraq war.

If anyone currently has to hold a relationship to support their political ambitions, there is no better example at current than Florida governor and possible GOP vice presidential running mate Charlie Crist.  

The over-tanned and lanky Crist's private life has been full of rumors and speculation since 2006 when he was running for Governor.  Rumors of homosexual trysts were as common as womanizing reports.

In either case, I could care.  But the Florida media wants you to know Charlie is engaging in a heterosexual lifestyle.  More below the fold.

The Republican party and the Republican brand are in trouble.  Big trouble.  We all already know this with the anti-Republican sentiment nearly as high as the pro-Democratic sentiment nationwide.  

Our Presidential candidate is up nearly six points in polling averages.  Nearly all of our national groups are outfunding their Republican counterparts (where are you, DNC?) and the Republicans are retiring at a record rate rather than attempt to serve in the minority after a hard-fought battle -- if they even win back their seats.

And if you want more evidence, look below the fold for the changes by the Cook Political Report released today.

For those that don't know, Northeast Florida (Jacksonville and the surrounding counties) are about as Republican as you can get.  The only county near us that went for Kerry is Alachua County which has the college town of Gainesville.  That being said some poll results from Duval County should be a concern to John McCain...

Via Public Policy Polling, some nifty preview numbers for what will be one of the highest-profile U.S. Senate races anywhere in 2010.

PPP polled Martinez, first elected in 2004, against Florida's popular Democratic CFO, Adelaide "Alex" Sink.

31% reelect? Ugly, ugly, ugly.

The numbers aren't a lot better for Martinez against Democratic Congressman Robert Wexler:

Although Wexler's name recognition is surely pretty high for a Congressman (he's a regular face on national TV), I doubt it's anywhere near as high as Martinez'. Not only that, but Wexler is no centrist Democrat; he's an uabashed liberal, as evidenced by the name of his book, "Fire-Breathing Liberal".

So do these numbers speak to a Democratic resurgence in Florida, or to Martinez' personal electoral weakness? I'd say it's a bit of both.

Martinez' approval/disapproval numbers are truly dismal: 23% of voters approve of his job performance, 43% disapprove. By comparison, 43% approve of the job Democratic Senator Bill Nelson has done, with 29% disapproving.  

With Governor Charlie Crist unlikely to draw a top opponent for his 2010 race, Martinez is going to be atop the Florida Dems' target list, and likely the DSCC's as well.

The poll also shows Obama defeating McCain in Florida this year:

Inspiring all around, I'd say.

Race tracker wiki: FL-Sen

Venerable polling service, PPP, has their new poll out of Florida which cuts against Rasmussen's findings yesterday but is in line with Q-Poll and ARG, showing Obama gaining and passing McCain in Florida.

Obama:  46% (39%)
McCain: 44% (50%)

The earlier poll was taking in March at the height of the Wright affair.  Best of all, their analysis.

"It’s a long way until November, but Barack Obama would be looking at an Electoral College landslide if the election was today," said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.

That's some strong words.... More good news, Room for Improvement below

With just a short time remaining until the end of the quarter, I wanted to share the AFL-CIO's endorsement of Joe Garcia from a few days ago. Joe's strong support of working class families includes proposals for helping unions organize, a universal health care plan, and a commitment to put the money we're using in Iraq back into the hands of Americans struggling in the current economy. President Fred Frost annnounced the endorsement of our candidates.

"We believe it is time for CHANGE in South Florida and we need elected officials who will be champions for worker issues in the United States Congress," said Fred Frost President of the South Florida AFL-CIO. "Our unions will work hard to get Raul Martinez, Joe Garcia and Annette Taddeo elected in November," he added.

The following parody news story appeared seven years ago today. It was published and distributed by Yossarian Universal News Service (YU), the world’s first satiric news syndicate founded in 1980.

YU News Dispatch 030
Yossarian Universal News Service 062901
3:04:16:02 PM PST
START

KATHERINE HARRIS HOPES TO BE FIRST WOMAN TOON ELECTED TO CONGRESS
Awound The Wough And Wugged Wocks The Wagged Wascal Wudely Wan

Miami (YU) -- Katherine Harris, Florida's comic Secretary of State who was recently listed in the Guinness Book of World Records for being named in the punch line to more jokes over a six-month period than any other person in the history of the world, announced her intention today to run for Congress.

It was heartening news from Kos that a recent poll shows Obama ahead in South Florida, thereby putting the state truly into play.   But given the utter insanity that is Florida electoral politics - not too heartening.  If we want to ensure an Obama victory in Florida we need a paradigm shift away from Cuba, away from immigration and the drug war and health care - and even energy for that matter.  Obama should clear the deck in Florida for a new "single issue".  

That issue, I dare say, will be/can be: Global Warming, or Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW).    

As we prepare to celebrate our freedom, this upcoming July 4th, our thoughts are also with the soldiers and their families who are unable to be together and enjoy the day too.
Even though the Iraq War does not enter most people’s minds, on a daily basis, you should think about the many ways it does affect your life.

A few days ago I wrote a diary about how John McCain and his toady VP wannabe Charlie Crist accomplished an impressive double flip-flop on the issue of offshore drilling in a span of just a few days.  It was breathtaking to watch.  Apparently the St. Petersburg Times noticed this too, and today published an editorial blasting McCain and Crist for spinning so hard and fast on the issue of drilling off the coast of Florida.

An urgent plea to the rest of you states out there! Please make sure Florida's 27 electoral college votes aren't needed this year. Because it's looking more and more like we're going to have trouble counting the votes again down here!

Last year the Florida legislature outlawed the infamous touch screen voting systems and several counties have been forced to switch to an optical scan paper ballot system (this was the carrot that was dangled by the legislature to also move our primary date, but I digress....) This change has impacted some of Florida's largest counties, including Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach.

Our August 26 primaries will be the first test of these new systems (yes, the same legislation also moved our primaries to coincide with the start of the Democratic National Convention - which is why I couldn't be a delegate this year - but I digress again....).

And we've already blown up the system I'm afraid....follow me after the break.

Wexler going back to Colbert, despite previous controversy

copyright © 2008 Betsy L. Angert.  BeThink.org

Trend-setter and teacher Congressman Robert Wexler may have mentored many a freshmen class of Representatives.  Well into the future, the newest Congressmen and women will study the mistakes that might define an earlier Wexler performance.  Certainly, Robert Wexler did.  Upon reflection, his trials helped him to acquire great knowledge.  The Democrat from Boca Raton, Florida learned his lessons well.  He illustrates why, as retired Major League Pitcher Vernon Law attests, "Experience is a hard teacher because she gives the test first, the lesson afterward."  

Strange week. Saw my first McCain ad this week...and it is clear he is running as a Democrat. Healthcare, alternative energy, environment...all Democratic talking points. We have gone from Democrats feeling like they have to run as Repub-Lite to Republicans trying to hide behind a Democratic facade. You even have a Republican running for Senate in Oregon trying to claim (falsely) that Obama supports him. This is desperation for the Republicans! It sounds like racist attacks have failed them, though I am sure they will try more as time goes on.

Meanwhile yet more polls show Obama ahead in Virginia and Missouri, tied in Florida, AHEAD IN INDIANA (wow!) and within 1-2 points of McCain in North Carolina, Alaska and Georgia. Each and every one of these states was solid Bush in 2004. Now they are either leaning Obama or effectively tied.

OK, he's not a governor and he's not a general.  But, a solid progressive liberal with strong finance and foreign affairs cred.  From the Florida 19th, a strong blue district of Jewish wealthy people including Coral Springs and Boca Raton, will help Obama with the Jewish community, a community that is 92% Democratic yet oddly leery of Obama.  Also, it couldn't hurt to have a strong Floridian on the ballot.

I like Sebelius.  I like Richardson.  I like Clark.  But, more and more, I'm coming to like Wexler.  I know Congressmen don't often go into the Number 2 spot, but, really, why not?

What do you think?