The Lone Blue Star is coming!  

Even in the deepest most dismal and downtrodden  corner of Bush Texas hope has taken root again.  The latest poll puts
Texas just a pale shade and not the deep red you might expect.  Texas is no more than a strong leaner for Bush with Obama within 10 points.  Millions of people live in that turning bastion formerly polluted with bush's miasmic philosophy.  We have to liberate them from the straglehold of the loons in charge there.  And we are!  

We may not get the Presidential contest outcome best for Texans this year but it's not far off. The Texans had allredy started tthis tumbleweed revolt and Obama is pouring resources into that misgoverned but soon better place.

For those of you with a deep streak of cynicism about Obama there is still common cause in this effort to change the electorate and the quality of our representatives from the roots up.  

If you were around in 2006, you might have seen my Taking Back the House State-by-State series.  Well, this year, I've gotten a bit more ambitious.  Anyway, take a jump with me, and let's just see...

ALABAMA!

One of Howard Dean's main goals is the election of more Democrats (he probably wants better Democrats too, but he likely can't say that publicly).

As unhappy as we are with the Dems capitulating on FISA (many of them, I do have to admit, but ENOUGH of them), it's important to remember that NO Republicans voted against this latest outrage by the Bush regime.

If you're not familiar with Thomas Schaller, who is featured in today's Pundit Round-Up, do not be tempted by his arguments against a 50-state strategy...for you do not yet know how wrong he is!

As Kossack Bo Jangle's Diary indicated today, AZ's GOP is fed up with McCain.  But other promising and strange things are afoot in Arizona that don't bode well for the GOP and McCain this election year. More below the fold.

Yes, FISA is important, and yes, it's important that our candidates do what they say they will do.  However, it's also important that we look at the big picture, and not take the usual Democrat route of letting the Perfect become the Good.

This afternoon I got the always uplifting chance to hear Howard Dean speak. He was the draw at a Democrats Abroad UK event held at the Imperial College campus in London.

One of the worst things about being an ex-pat is feeling removed from the on-the-ground action. (In spite of my unchangeable screen name, I have been in London for a couple years now.) We don't get the parade of primary candidates the hot states do, although surrogates occasionally visit for money. (Actually, more like California than I thought ;-)

So even if I wasn't an unreformed Deaniac, I have to give kudos to DAUK for making this happen and I went early to help with check-in at this low cost (£10) fundraiser. I think about 300 people registered, which is a really big crowd for DAUK, especially on this exceptionally pretty blue-sky Sunday in a city that used to be called the Big Smoke.

Electoral-Vote.com shows good things for Obama, and that the 50-State Strategy is paying dividends.  First off, the electoral vote total, based on the most recent poll in each state: Obama 317, McCain 194, Ties (FL) 27.  Next, the states Kerry lost, where Obama's leading (ie. potential Dem flips): CO, IA, MO, NM, OH, VA.  Then, the states Kerry won, where McCain's leading (ie. potential GOP flips): None.

But, most interesting to me, is how Obama's doing vs. how previous Democrats did in each state (more below the fold)...

During the GA primary, I cautiously optimistic that Obama was going to do very well, because of all the excitement surrounding his run.  Since then I have been pretty sure that could win GA in the GE...we just needed to make sure that we do everything possible to get more people registered to vote.

Well, according to A New InsiderAdvantage Poll...it's very close.

More after the break.
chocolatechiq.com

Every State. Every race. Right here.

This is number seventeen in a planned series of 50 entries between now and November, looking at each of the 50 states in terms of every race on that state's ticket--Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, House, State legislatures--the whole cornfield.  Special attention paid to identifying and promoting the most important contests per state.

Time for some heartland goodness! Today, we will explore the primary primary state (oh, all right, primary caucus state of Iowa!

Your Part of the 50 State Campaign has begun with the same sort of effort that was the start of  Barrack Obama's public life.

Obama's first months in Chicago were spent registering voters in an effort that changed Illinois. The state that had last voted for a Bush over Dukakis before the registration drive became deep blue only after Obama's work.
Among other Democrats who gained office through such efforts was Bill Clinton.  

Now it's time to turn more purple states blue and more red states purple.  You are the change.  People register when they are asked to register.  Change the world by joining Vote For Change.  Asking enough individuals to vote is the key to changing this world.  You are the rubber meeting the road.  You will be the change As we register the voters that will break politics free of our log jammed past.  
  Vote for Change<a</p>

(From the Drexel Democrats Blog)

Around here the Dean/Obama 50 State Strategy is accepted wisdom.  It's not controversial anymore, and it's clearly paid dividends both in special elections and in Obama's primary campaign.  Republicans, however, have yet to catch on.

Case in point: The Republican challenger to Congressman Chaka Fattah (CD-2) here in West Philadelphia recently dropped out and blasted the local and national party for their utter lack of support.

Now, nobody expected Fattah to be in any danger;  He's been reelected with over 86% of the vote six times in a row now.  The 2nd CD is safely Democratic and heavily African-American, and Fattah is an excellent congressman.  He has strong ties to the district and is a reliably Democratic vote in the house.  But as Howard Dean showed us, you can't expect people to vote for you if you don't ask for them to.

A lot of people thought my last analysis was too optimistic, but I don't think so. With grassroots support and a 50 state strategy as well as the trifecta of an unpopular war, a crappy economy, and GOP corruption not seen before all together. Obama has huge support from young people not seen since the 60s, and they are voting in huge numbers. Obama also is getting support from African Americans not seen since uhh ever. Obama still wins people under 30 2-1 even in southern "red states" like Georgia and since GA is such a young state and is 30% black, I think the state is in play. McCain also has a huge enthusiasm gap, and can't do as well with evangelicals as Bush did who was trusted by all conservatives and at a time when gay marriage was such a scary issue to people. The south has more social conservatives than any other region in the country, and evangelicals really wanted Huckabee where they continued to vote for him months after McCain clinched the nomination. This is why I think Obama can do very well in the south, I can see Obama winning 400 evs and 35 states, but only if we keep up the enthusiasm and grassroots support. Remember, Clinton won 4 southern states in both 92 and 96, so it's doable.

But the south was my last analysis, so now it's westward ho.

I am really enthused about Senator Obama's campaign and his chances to win in November. People here are pretty savvy about politics, and so they know that the election is won in the Electoral College. However, I'd like to make a case for the importance in of the popular vote at this moment, for this candidate, for our Party.  

Now that we shift away from the primary, I thought the time might be right for a diary about general election campaign strategy.

"Why, Kerry Fan, should I listen to whatever the hell you have to say about campaign strategy?  What expertise do you have in running national presidential campaigns?"

Well, I'm glad you asked (and I'll be happy to take questions from the rest of you later).  I was about to get to that.

To be frank, I have no expertise in running national presidential campaigns.  But I have some thoughts that I think are worth exploring, and I hope you'll take a few minutes to read them.  I wish I had some fancy credentials to tout that would make them sound more legitimate, but, hey, one of the great things about blogs is that we don't need no particular credentials to log on and share our thoughts.  That said, I hope you'll follow me below the jump.

With the inspiring video of Barack Obama on the rec list, and him describing the large battle ahead, we will have a 50 state strategy going into the general election.  I still credit Howard Dean with this strategy, one that was adopted by Obama in winning his own nomination.  

While it is true that Obama campaigned harder in some states than he did in other, I believe that he actually campaigned by appearances, rallies, townhalls, etc. during the nomination process in at least 48 states (Alaska and Hawaii not visited - correct me if I am wrong).  He absolutely had campaign offices in each state and territory, and this laid out the base for the fall campaign.

Today's Washington Post features an article about how each party is searching for wins in traditional opponent territory; however, I believe Obama already has a one up on McCain in that regard.  Many more states will be in contention (imho) than the Democrats have put into contention for most of my life.  

This is what I love most about Barack Obama and his campaign: it doesn't spin for spin's sake and if it says it's going to do something, it does it.

We've heard for months on end that Obama will pursue a 50 state strategy that will not focus on less than half the states in the union and hope it can be lucky to win a straight flush. Past campaigns give lip service to this idea but it appears the Obama campaign is serious about doing more than a Rovian 50% + 1 vote strategy. From today's New York Times:

Mr. Obama has moved in recent days to transform his primary organization into a general election machine, hiring staff members, sending organizers into important states and preparing a television advertisement campaign to present his views and his biography to millions of Americans who followed the primaries from a distance...

The same old advice just shouldn't be taken this year.  We need to compete everywhere now.  It's very different this year.  First we have a candidate who can raise more money than the GOP. Second we have a candidate who really does have a good chance of setting records in attracting new voters - a pioneer in color can do things like that  Finally the economy is in the tank to a degree we are just starting to notice - how low can that economy go?  The GOP have allowed things to deteriorate so that things haven't looked this bad in 3/4's of a Century according to some very conservative sources.